The Risk Wire
Daily deployment intelligence for systematic traders. One question, every day: Is it safe to deploy?
Iran Cracks the Strait Open for 'Non-Hostile' Ships and Gets a 15-Point Peace Plan -- Oil Drops Below $100, S&P Rallies 1.2%
Iran told the UN that 'non-hostile' vessels can transit the Strait of Hormuz -- the first partial reopening since the war began -- while Pakistan delivered a 15-point US ceasefire proposal covering sanctions, nukes, and the Strait. Markets surged on the dual headlines, with Brent crude falling below $100 and the S&P adding 1.2%. But only 5 ships transited Monday versus 120 pre-war, Iran is mocking the peace plan, and Apollo just gated $770M in private credit redemptions.
Read full analysisI've been trading systematic strategies on US equities and futures since 2011. Every day, I assess volatility regimes, credit conditions, breadth, momentum, and macro catalysts to decide whether it's safe to be fully deployed or whether to pull back.
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